According to a new report by Choice Broking, the results of India’s IT companies in the fourth quarter of FY 2025 may be a bit weak. The reason for this is that clients from the US and Europe are reviewing their expenses and decreasing non-discretionary IT expenses. This may reduce the growth of IT and engineering services companies by 2-3% in the next financial year (FY26). In the US, the tariff does not have a direct impact, but the pressure will remain although the American tariffs do not apply directly to IT services, this may affect the industries which are big customers of Indian IT companies. If there is a recession in the US or the trade war is sharp, it may shock Indian software exporters. Base Case vs. Beer Case: The preparation report of two possibilities describes two types of status (Scenario): Base Case: Light recession, dollar stability and large deals continue in the US. In this situation, India and other countries may get a chance to compromise on better terms than the US. Beer Case: A deep recession in the US and the possibility of tariff on Indian IT services. In this situation, growth can be negative and the dollar can go below ₹ 85, which will have a major impact on the income of the companies. If the possibility of “beer case” increases, brokerage can ‘cautout’ its sector rating. Tier-i companies slow, Tier-II a little relief Choice Broking reported that the income of Tier-I companies can be from -0.1% to 1.5% in this quarter. At the same time, the growth of Tier-II companies is estimated from 0% to 4.5%. Companies like Infosys, HCL Tech and Ltimindtree may have to face more impact of US policy due to excess exposure in retail, manufacturing and logistics sector. Operational reforms, but Hiring may slow down. IT companies have now reduced the rate of job, which has improved the work. However, Hiring of new people may remain slow at the moment. Companies are now focusing on reducing sub-contracting costs, creating the right balance of workforce and increasing operational efficiency. Falling valuation, better opportunity for long -term, even though the situation is a little challenging, the decline in IT stocks in the stock market can now become a good opportunity for long -term investors. The report described Infosys, HCL Tech and Ltimindtree in Tier-I companies and Coforge and L&T Technology Services are described as a favorite in Tier-II. The name of the company is CMP (₹) Target Price (₹) Possible Return Rating Allied Digital (Alds) 181 264 46% Buy Coforge (Coforge) 6,465 11,265 11,260 74% Buy Cyient (CIL) 1,153 1,660 44% Buy Datatics Global (Data) 569 610 7% Hold Happiest Minds (Happstmn) 549 750 37% Buy HCL Tech (HCLT) 1,403 1,807 1,807 29% Buy Indimart Intermesh 1,996 2,2866666666666666666666 Buy kpit tech. (Kpit) 1,114 1,707 53% buy l & t tech. (Ltts) 4,102 5,525 35% Buy LTI Mindtree (LTIM) 4,173 5,445 30% Buy MPhasis (mphl) 2,170 2,625 21% buy person system (PSYS) 4,594% HOW TATA Consultancy (TCS) 3,293 4,236 29% Buy Tata ELXSI (TELX) 4,872 4,900 0.5% Hold Tech Mahindra (TECHM) 1,315 1,865 42% Buy Wipro (WPro) 247 296 20% HOLD Disclaimer: Before investment, consult yourself or financial advisor. First Published – April 9, 2025 | 8:33 pm IST related posts
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